Trends in United’s amazing cardholder award availability

In the post “United’s amazing cardholder award availability,” I showed that United is offering cardholders a huge number of Polaris business-class award seats to and from Europe (and, to a lesser extent, to and from Asia). When working on that post, I noticed that weekend awards seemed rare. I also noted a big drop-off in award availability as of April 2027. So now, almost a month later, I’ve dug into new data to see if I could identify trends…

Data

I used Seats.aero on 9/15/2026 to identify saver-level Polaris business-class awards between North America and Europe across the entire year. In each case, I counted the number of nonstop United flights in which at least one business-class seat was available to United cardholders at United’s saver-level pricing.

Trends to/from Europe

Few weekend awards

Over 90% of the Polaris business-class awards between North America and Europe are on weekdays, Monday through Thursday. If you’re looking for weekend flights, a United card is unlikely to help much.

Few last-minute awards

This surprised me. I thought I’d find many more awards available within the next 7 or 14 days than in most other weeks. That doesn’t appear to be the case. In fact, the number of awards available per week over the next four weeks is far less than usual:

The April cliff may be a seasonal thing

In my previous post, I noted a significant drop in award availability starting April 1, 2027. I wrote:

As I write this on August 19th, 2026, there are far fewer saver-level business class seats available in April 2027 or later… Does the party end in April, exactly a year after United rolled out better Polaris award availability for cardholders? Or will United keep loading more award space over time? I expect the latter. It will be interesting to redo this analysis in September to see if the award cliff shifts to May.

OK, now it’s September. Let’s see how things look…

With flights to Europe, you can see above that there was a huge drop in award availability starting in April. But there’s a tiny spike in August with 27 awards. That’s bigger than it seems because United’s award calendar as of 9/15/26 only goes through 8/14/27. So the 27 awards are potentially indicating that there will be at least 52 awards once the full month loads, and possibly more. I think we’re simply seeing that United is stingier with awards during peak travel season, April through July. This little August spike is great news because it means United has continued to add cardholder awards beyond April 2027.

Trends to/from Asia

Few weekend awards (but not as bad as Europe)

As with awards to and from Europe, most awards to and from Asia are on weekdays. However, the effect is much less pronounced than with Europe. With Europe, fewer than 10% of awards were available on weekends (Fri-Sun). With Asia, 28% of awards to Asia are on weekends, and 17% of awards from Asia are on weekends. In other words, there’s still a weekend drop-off, but it’s far less of an issue than with flights to/from Europe.

Last-minute award spike

Here we’re definitely seeing a spike in last-minute awards. Over the next two weeks, award availability far exceeds the weekly median. Additionally, awards 3 to 4 weeks out are almost nonexistent. I believe that United is loading new award space within two weeks of departure.

No obvious April cliff

Approximately 20% of awards to and from Asia are from April 1st onward. While that’s fewer than we’d expect if awards were evenly distributed, I don’t see a pattern related to an April-onward drop-off. In fact, the months where there appear to be big drops in award availability are all over the map:

• To Asia:
  • 0 awards in August
  • Fewer than 10 awards per month in October, March, April, and June.
• From Asia:
  • 0 awards in April or August
  • Fewer than 12 awards per month in October, November, and March

Conclusion

For travel to/from Europe, your best bet is to fly in the winter months, but not on weekends. It does not appear to be a good idea to wait for awards to open up last minute.

For travel to/from Asia, you may do well to book a “good enough” flight, but then keep checking for something better. Within 2 weeks of departure, it appears that United opens up additional Polaris awards. Avoiding weekends may help a bit, but not as much as with Europe.

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