Global Disaster Losses Dip Below Average as Venezuela Quake and Heatwaves Signal Rising Risk

Natural catastrophes caused roughly $112 billion in global losses during the first six months of 2026, with insurers covering just $44 billion of that total, according to Munich Re.

The figures leave a 60% insurance gap and come in just below the ten-year inflation-adjusted average for the period — $113 billion in overall losses, $50 billion insured — and well below the five-year average of $136 billion in overall losses, of which $66 billion were insured.

The single most destructive event was a double earthquake in Venezuela on June 24, when quakes measuring magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 on the Richter scale struck about 125 miles west of Caracas near the town of Morón. The U.S. Geological Survey called it the most powerful quake to hit the highly earthquake-prone region since 1900. Thousands of people died, and Munich Re put preliminary total losses at around $30 billion, with insured losses of less than $1 billion.

Heatwaves Push Boundaries of What’s Possible Without Climate Change

Record-breaking heat gripped North America and Europe for much of the first half of the year, with scientists describing “record-shattering temperatures” that far exceeded prior highs in many locations, Munich Re said.

In Möckern, Germany, a June reading of 41.8 degrees Celsius  (107.3 degrees Fahrenheit) topped the country’s previous record, set in 2019, by 0.6 degrees, and came before what is typically the hottest point of the German summer. A study cited by Munich Re found the most recent European heatwave would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius (38.3 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler had it occurred 50 years ago, underscoring that Europe is warming at more than twice the global average rate.

In the U.S., another study found that June’s combination of heat and humidity reached levels that would have been virtually impossible without climate change, with nighttime temperatures in parts of the eastern U.S. barely dropping below 27 degrees Celsius, or about 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

Munich Re said heatwaves are now the natural hazard responsible for the most deaths, citing an estimate from Germany’s Robert Koch Institute that heat-related deaths in that country alone exceeded 5,000 between April and June. Because heat rarely causes direct property damage, its financial toll is harder to measure and instead shows up in lost productivity, production stoppages, infrastructure strain, transportation disruptions and crop failures.

An OECD study of company data across 23 developed economies found that 10 additional days of temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) reduces annual labor productivity by an average of 0.3%, an effect Munich Re said is roughly comparable to a 5% jump in energy prices, with the impact intensifying as humidity rises.

A “Super El Niño” Looms Over the Second Half of the Year

Forecasts point to record-breaking El Niño conditions developing by the end of 2026, a pattern Munich Re said will compound climate-driven warming and reshape extreme weather risk across multiple regions. El Niño tends to raise drought and wildfire risk in Australia, Central America and southwestern Africa, while increasing heavy rainfall and flash flood risk in western South America, parts of Brazil and the southwestern U.S.

It typically suppresses North Atlantic hurricane activity but fuels tropical cyclone formation across the North Pacific. Tobias Grimm, Munich Re’s chief climate scientist, called the combination “a dangerous mix,” adding: “as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters.”

By region, North America recorded $47 billion in total losses ($34 billion insured), both below their 10-year averages, led by an April severe thunderstorm outbreak across the Midwest and Texas that produced roughly 100 tornadoes and $5.8 billion in losses, of which $4.1 billion were insured.

Europe’s H1 losses of $22 billion ($7 billion insured) exceeded 10-year averages, driven largely by nine winter storms in Portugal and Spain, including Kristin in late January, which alone caused about $7.7 billion in losses, of which $1.8 billion were insured. Asia-Pacific losses fell sharply to $8.7 billion against a ten-year average of $32 billion, with just over $1 billion insured, while Africa recorded about $2 billion in losses, most of it uninsured, including flooding and storms in South Africa that caused more than $500 million in damage.

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