Millions Leaving SAVE Could Still Owe $0 Per Month — But Most Haven’t Run The Numbers

More than 7 million student loan borrowers are being pushed off the SAVE plan in the next few months, and for many, the anxiety is real: after nearly two years of forbearance, they’re bracing for a monthly bill they fear they can’t afford. 

But we’ve been seeing something interesting in our comments on social media – borrowers are surprised that they can still secure a $0 monthly payment on IBR. 

That makes sense. If historical patterns hold, at least 3 million of these borrowers would still qualify for a $0 monthly payment under Income-Based Repayment (IBR). They just haven’t run the numbers yet. That’s why borrowers need to use a Student Loan Calculator and see what their expected payments would be.

The Department of Education began notifying enrolled borrowers on July 1 that they have 90 days to choose a new repayment plan. Borrowers who don’t move in time will be moved into a new plan automatically. That deadline has created a scramble among borrowers who, in some cases, have not made a payment since March 2020.

Here’s what borrowers might be missing about still having a $0 monthly payment.

The $0 Payment Has Always Been More Common Than Borrowers Think

Zero-dollar monthly payments are not a SAVE invention. They have been a standard feature of income-driven repayment (IDR) for more than a decade, and they have always covered a large share of enrollees.

Before the pandemic, roughly 8.2 million borrowers were enrolled in IDR plans, according to Federal Student Aid data from late 2019. A 2019 Center for American Progress analysis, cited in an NPR investigation, found that nearly half of them (roughly 4 million borrowers) had a $0 scheduled payment. The Government Accountability Office reported the same pattern within REPAYE (the predecessor to SAVE) where slightly more than half of borrowers were scheduled to pay nothing because of low reported income.

SAVE pushed that share higher. Because SAVE used a 225% discretionary income formula (compared to 150% under older plans) the GAO found that nearly 60% of SAVE borrowers with scheduled payments (3.6 million of 6.2 million) owed $0 as of January 31, 2024. The Education Department later reported that 4.6 million of the more than 8 million borrowers who enrolled in SAVE had a $0 monthly payment.

Put simply: for the entire history of income-driven repayment, roughly half of borrowers at any given time have owed no monthly payment.

Estimating The Data Today

Here is the math we used to estimate potentially $0 monthly payments, using deliberately conservative assumptions.

Step 1: Total SAVE Borrowers. Roughly 7.7 million borrowers were enrolled in SAVE or SAVE forbearance and must move to a new plan. The Department of Education has said 1 million people have changed plans, but we’ll use the original total.

Step 2: How Many Save Borrowers Had $0 Payments. GAO data shows 58% of SAVE borrowers had $0 payments (3.6 million ÷ 6.2 million) as of early 2024.

Step 3: Adjust for IBR’s 150% Threshold. IBR is not as generous as SAVE was. For a single borrower in 2026, the $0 cutoff falls from about $35,910 in adjusted gross income (225% of the $15,960 poverty guideline) to $23,940 (150%).

History also tells us what happens at that lower threshold: plans using 150% (REPAYE, PAYE, and IBR) produced $0 payments for roughly half of enrollees before the pandemic (about 4 million of 8.2 million in 2019).

Step 4: Adjust for Old Income Data. Most SAVE borrowers last certified income in 2023 or earlier, and wages have grown since. Some borrowers who owed $0 then will earn too much now. To be conservative, we assume the $0 share falls to 40-45% (below anything observed in the program’s history) rather than the 45-55% the pre-pandemic record supports.

Step 5: Multiply. 7.7 million × 40% = 3.1 million. 7.7 million × 45% = 3.5 million.

The estimate: 3.1 to 3.5 million borrowers (let’s call it “at least 3 million”) would likely qualify for a $0 payment on IBR. Even if the true share of borrowers fell all the way to 35%, a level with no historical precedent, that would still be 2.7 million borrowers paying nothing each month.

Two caveats. This is an estimate, not an official Department of Education figure. ED has not published a projection of $0-payment eligibility for SAVE borrowers moving to IBR. And the estimate only holds for borrowers who actually choose IBR. Those who choose RAP or a standard plan will always have an above $0 payment, regardless of income.

Why The Plan You Pick Matters 

The choice borrowers make in the next 90 days carries more weight than past plan switches, because the new Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP) (which opened July 1, 2026) breaks with years of IDR design.

RAP has no $0 payment. Borrowers with adjusted gross income of $10,000 or less pay a $10 monthly minimum, and payments scale from 1% to 10% of total AGI as income rises, with a $50 monthly deduction per dependent.

RAP does offer benefits older plans don’t, including an interest subsidy that prevents balances from growing and a principal match of up to $50 per month. But for the lowest-income borrowers, RAP means paying something every month when it used to be $0.

IBR, by contrast, kept its $0 payment. Borrowers can also move to PAYE or ICR temporarily, but those plans sunset by July 1, 2028, forcing a second switch later.

What This Means For Your Family’s Budget

For families bracing for a new bill, the practical advice is simple: calculate before you panic. The College Investor’s Student Loan Calculator and App can help.

A single borrower earning $23,000 would pay $0 on IBR, but about $38 per month on RAP (2% of AGI). A single borrower earning $30,000 lands at roughly $50 per month on either plan. A married borrower with two kids and $45,000 in household AGI would likely pay $0 on IBR, but about $50 on RAP after the $50-per-dependent deduction.

The right answer differs by income, family size, loan age, and how long a borrower has already been in repayment, especially for anyone pursuing Public Service Loan Forgiveness or time-based loan forgiveness, where months at $0 count fully.

The worst outcome is doing nothing. Borrowers who miss the 90-day window will be placed in a plan they didn’t choose, and borrowers who simply stop paying face delinquency, credit damage, and (with collections restarting soon) wage garnishment and offset of tax refunds.

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