Will Interest Rates Go Down in July?
Mortgage rate forecast for next week (Jul 6 – 10)
Mortgage rates fell.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) declined to 6.43% on July 2, 2026 from 6.49% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage eased slightly this week averaging 6.43%
| Average 30-year fixed rate | 1-week ago | 4-weeks ago | 3-months ago | 1-year ago |
| 6.43% | 6.49% | 6.48% | 6.46% | 6.77% |
The latest borrowing activity
Though lagging, the most recent weekly mortgage application report from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a seasonally adjusted 0.8% decrease for the seven days ending March 27. The refinance index fell 3% week-over-week while standing 4% lower from a year ago. The purchase index rose 1% weekly but came down 7% year-over-year.
“Outside of Fed policy, the U.S.-Iran War will remain in focus. The longer the conflict takes to resolve, the longer the expectation of higher inflation will remain. Higher energy prices resulting from a closed Strait of Hormuz will keep US inflation higher than hoped. Higher inflation generally means higher mortgage rates.” says Charles Goodwin, VP and Head of Bridge and DSCR Lending at Kiavi
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Will mortgage rates go down in July?
Mortgage rates enter July near 6.49%, holding within the mid-6 percent range they have occupied for weeks. The 30-year fixed has barely moved over the past month, signaling a market waiting for a fresh catalyst.
– Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets
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The next FOMC meeting is not until July 28-29, 2026, so the first three weeks of the month carry no scheduled Fed decision. Two inflation reports stand between now and then: the CPI release on July 15 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the PCE release on July 31 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those readings will shape expectations heading into the meeting.
With the FOMC having held steady at its April 29, 2026 meeting, markets have little reason to price a sharp move before late July. The CPI print mid-month is the most likely source of volatility before then.
The likeliest path for July is rates holding broadly flat near current levels. A clear directional move would require a surprise in the inflation data or a shift in tone from the Fed at the end of the month.
Expert mortgage rate predictions for July
Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets
Prediction: Rates will hold steady
Mortgage rates are likely to remain relatively unchanged in June, averaging close to 6.5% for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Accelerating inflation, driven by the war in Iran, has elevated bond yields and pushed up mortgage rates. Until inflation slows down or falls, bond yields and mortgage rates are unlikely to come down. Although the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, cuts to the Federal Funds Rate are unlikely in the coming months. With a relatively resilient labor market, the Fed will likely want to see inflation under control before making any further cuts.
Charles Goodwin, VP and Head of Bridge and DSCR Lending at Kiavi
Prediction: Rates will hold steady
Mortgage rates are more likely to stay flat or drift upward rather than fall in June. Futures markets are currently projecting the Fed will leave the overnight borrowing rate unchanged in the mid-June meeting. Outside of Fed policy, the U.S.-Iran War will remain in focus. The longer the conflict takes to resolve, the longer the expectation of higher inflation will remain. Higher energy prices resulting from a closed Strait of Hormuz will keep US inflation higher than hoped. Higher inflation generally means higher mortgage rates. Finally, keep an eye on the “first Friday Jobs report” coming up this Friday to get the latest check on the labor market. If the labor market shows continued signs of strength, that will effectively seal the fate of no Fed rate cut in June.
Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American
Prediction: Rates will hold steady
Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady in the mid-6 percent range in June as financial markets await greater clarity on energy prices and geopolitical risks. Still, there are some encouraging signs that rates may start moving in the right direction. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which mortgage rates loosely follow, has fallen back from its mid-May highs as signs of progress toward de-escalation have emerged. Any reversal in oil markets or renewed geopolitical risk—or a more hawkish read from the June FOMC meeting and updated projections—could quickly put upward pressure back on rates. Any potential rate relief could be a key swing factor in whether improving affordability translates into stronger buyer activity this year. Cooler home price growth and rising incomes have improved affordability compared with a year ago, but the spring rebound in rates dialed back some of that momentum. A meaningful step down in rates could reopen the market to buyers who paused during the recent run-up. Until then, higher borrowing costs could limit how quickly conditions improve.
Ralph DiBugnara, President at Home Qualified
Prediction: Rates will hold steady
I expect mortgage rates in June to remain relatively in the same range as May, with the chance of slightly lower rates if Inflation Data or Labor Markets give us a little relief. Inflation being as high as it is now has been a major deterrent to any rate reductions and some may even say we need a raise in rates to combat it. My overall outlook is that rates will likely hold steady to slightly improve, but I don’t see a dramatic drop happening in the immediate future. One thing we’re continuing to see is that buyers are adapting to the current rate environment, rather than waiting on the sidelines and are out buying in large numbers again based on seasonal averages. Purchase activity has picked up across many markets this spring, especially in areas where inventory remains tight. Even with affordability challenges, there’s still strong demand from buyers who have accepted that today’s rates may simply be the new normal for now. I see the 30 year Fixed average mortgage rate holding around 6.5% for June and 15 Year fixed at 6.125%.
Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days
The Fed held steady at its April 29, 2026 meeting and does not meet again until July 28-29, 2026. That late-July decision is the key policy event on the near-term calendar, and markets will weigh incoming data against it through the first three weeks of the month.
Inflation data will guide the read into that meeting. The CPI release on July 15 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics offers the first major signal, followed by the PCE release on July 31 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A cooler-than-expected CPI print could ease pressure on bond yields, while a hot reading could push them higher.
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Borrowers watching the next 90 days should track those two reports along with the July 28-29 FOMC outcome. The 10-year Treasury note, which mortgage rates loosely follow, will react to each release.
Mortgage rate predictions for July 2026
The major housing authorities publish quarterly-average forecasts. For Q2 2026, both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association place the 30-year fixed at 6.40%, for an average of 6.400%.
That Q2 2026 quarterly-average figure sits just below the current 6.49% reading, consistent with a market holding near current levels rather than moving sharply in either direction.
| Housing Authority | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q2 2026) |
| Fannie Mae | 6.40% |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.40% |
| Average Prediction | 6.400% |
Current mortgage interest rate trends
As of July 2, 2026, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 6.43%.
The average 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.43% on Jul. 2 from 6.49% on Jun. 25. Meanwhile, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 5.79% from 5.84%.
| July 2026 | 6.43% |
| June 2026 | 6.49% |
| May 2026 | 6.53% |
| March 2025 | 6.65% |
| April 2025 | 6.73% |
| May 2025 | 6.82% |
| June 2025 | 6.82% |
| July 2025 | 6.72% |
| August 2025 | 6.59% |
| September 2025 | 6.35% |
| October 2025 | 6.25% |
| November 2025 | 6.24% |
| December 2025 | 6.19% |
| January 2026 | 6.10% |
Source: Freddie Mac
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023 before descending over 2024 and 2025. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory in 2026. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.
Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.
Mortgage rate forecast by loan type
Loan-type trends were mixed this week, with 30-year fixed at 6.43% and 15-year fixed at 5.79%.
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Which mortgage loan is best?
The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.
For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $832,750 in most parts of the U.S.
On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.
Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.
Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.
Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.
Mortgage rate strategies for July 2026
With the 30-year fixed near 6.49% and no FOMC decision until July 28-29, rates look set to hold broadly flat through most of July. That stability gives borrowers room to plan rather than react.
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The CPI release on July 15 and the PCE release on July 31 are the data points most likely to move rates before the Fed meets. A surprise in either direction could shift pricing.
The strategies below help borrowers act in a flat-rate environment without overpaying for the wait.
With rates holding near 6.49%, locking now removes the risk that the July 15 CPI report or the late-July FOMC meeting pushes rates higher. A lock protects your quoted rate for a set period.
Rate lock strategy
If you are within your lender’s lock window and comfortable with current pricing, locking is a reasonable choice. Ask about float-down options in case rates improve before closing.
Refinancing makes sense when the new rate and term improve your financial position enough to offset closing costs. Calculate your break-even point before moving forward.
With rates roughly a quarter point below year-ago levels, some borrowers who locked at higher rates may find savings. Run the math against your current loan to confirm.
Buyers facing a flat-rate market can focus on the parts of the deal they control: price negotiation, down payment, and lender selection. Waiting for a sharp rate drop carries no guarantee in current conditions.
Get preapproved so you can move quickly when the right property appears. A solid preapproval also strengthens your offer in competitive markets.
Refinance timing
Your credit score directly affects the rate you are offered. Improving it before you apply can lower your borrowing cost.
Steps that help include the following:
Pay down revolving balances to lower your credit utilization | Avoid opening new accounts before applying | Check your credit reports for errors and dispute them | Make all payments on time in the months before you apply
Even a modest score improvement can move you into a better pricing tier. The effort pays off across the life of the loan.
Home buying strategy
Pair credit work with rate shopping across multiple lenders. Combining both gives you the strongest position in a flat market.
Whatever your timeline, base your decision on your own finances rather than trying to time the market.
- Your credit score and credit history
- Your personal finances
- Your down payment (if buying a home)
- Your home equity (if refinancing)
- Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
- Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)
To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.
You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.
This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.
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Mortgage interest rate FAQ
As of Freddie Mac’s June 25, 2026 survey, the 30-year fixed averaged 6.49% and the 15-year fixed averaged 5.84%.
Rates have held within a narrow band, moving from 6.47% to 6.49% over the past week. With no FOMC meeting until July 28-29, a sharp move in the coming week is unlikely absent a data surprise.
The housing authorities’ Q2 2026 quarterly-average forecast places the 30-year fixed at 6.40%, just below the current 6.49%. That points to rates holding near current levels rather than falling sharply.
Several experts note that persistent inflation could keep upward pressure on rates. The CPI release on July 15 and PCE on July 31 will offer the next signals on that risk.
Among the standard programs, the 15-year fixed averaged 5.84%, below the 30-year fixed at 6.49%. The shorter term carries higher monthly payments.
Nothing in the current data points to a crash. Experts note that buyers are adapting to current rates and purchase activity has picked up in many markets this spring.
The 30-year fixed reached record lows below 3% during the early-decade rate environment. Today’s 6.49% sits well above those historic lows.
With rates holding near 6.49% and the July 15 CPI report plus the late-July FOMC meeting ahead, locking now removes near-term uncertainty. If you are comfortable with current pricing and within your lock window, locking is reasonable, though ask about float-down options.
It depends on your current rate. With the 30-year fixed at 6.49%, roughly a quarter point below the 6.76% of a year ago, borrowers who locked higher may find savings. Calculate your break-even point first.
A one-point reduction can be worth it if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup closing costs. Run your break-even calculation to confirm the savings justify the cost.
Request quotes from multiple lenders on the same day, compare both the rate and the fees, and review the loan estimates side by side. Strengthening your credit before applying can also improve your pricing.
What are today’s mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.
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1Today’s mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.
Selected sources:
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.
By refinancing an existing loan, the total finance charges incurred may be higher over the life of the loan.
